A Special Report by Bob Bluffield
Those old enough to remember will
recall the sensational 1968 Stanley Kubrick film, 2001: A Space Odyssey that was adapted from Arthur C Clarke's short
story The Sentinel. The theme revolves
around human beings encountering black monoliths that are affecting human
evolution. The storyline involves two astronauts on their way to Jupiter on Discovery One, a spacecraft that is
under the control of HAL 9000, a computer that has been ordered to withhold
vital information about the mission from the astronauts. HAL 9000 eventually
breaks down with 'acute emotional crisis' caused by being unable to come to
terms with his own fallibility. Critics
have compared the artificial intelligence (AI) of HAL 9000 with the threat AI is
already posing to humanity that is being deployed in computers and robots that
could be programmed with a superintelligence far superior to that of our own
species.
With the knowledge that scientist
will be able to develop robots with artificial intelligence that can give
machines the capability of reproducing themselves ad infinitum may sound fanciful,
but the threat of machines so powerful they could threaten the very existence
of the human race is in fact very real and might only be a few decades away.
In a powerful book published last
year, Nick Bostrom an eminent professor at Oxford Martin School, and Director
of the Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology at Oxford University,
argues that AI is the most important issue the human race has ever faced. In Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers,Strategies Professor Bostrom offers a compelling warning of the dangers. He
states how one only has to compare cleverer human brain to the brains of
animals to realise that we have capabilities that other creatures lack. In
turn, animals are equipped with stronger muscles or sharper teeth and claws
that we do not possess. This falls into insignificance when AI machines can be
created that surpass the intelligence and strength that man and even the
strongest mammals possess. Take the gorilla for example; for the species to
survive gorillas depend more on us humans than on other gorillas. In the same way, if left unchecked, the fate
of the human species would depend on the actions of the machine
superintelligence. Before you dismiss this as hyperbole, you should first take
the time to read Professor Bostrom's book and also consider the warnings being uttered
by some of the world's most respected scientists.
One such is the distinguished
theoretical physicist, Professor Stephen Hawking, who has issued a stark
warning that if scientists' progress in creating thinking machines, this could
lead to a shocking Doomsday situation. Despite his warning, Hawking nevertheless
agrees that some forms of primitive artificial intelligence have proved useful.
This includes a technology developed by the British company Swift Key (the
creators of keyboard software for IPhone and Android) that has developed a system
designed to predict what Hawking is thinking by suggesting words that he may
want to use next. By typing in around 15-20 per cent of what he wants to say, the software predicts the
rest. But, according to Hawking, this technology still comes with the familiar
American electronic accent that makes the professor sound robotic. With his
usual wicked sense of humour, Hawking jokes that he does not see this as a
downside, because it has become his trademark and he "wouldn't change it
for a more natural voice with a British accent".
The millionaire founder of Pay
Pal, Space X and Tesla electric cars, Elon Musk, describes the threat as being a
real life scenario between Terminator-style robots and mankind that is "... more dangerous than Nukes". He did
not mix his words by describing the creation of artificial intelligence as ...
"like summoning the demon", adding: "If I had to guess what the
biggest threat to our existence is, it's probably artificial
intelligence". He believes fictional depictions of AI such as the lethal
computer HAL 9000 in 2001: A Space
Odyssey and the robotic child David in Steven Spielberg's 2001 film AI - Artificial Intelligence would be
like a "puppy dog" in comparison to the power and threats we are
likely to face from real, self aware AI. Musk again: "I'm increasingly
inclined to think that there should be some regulatory oversight, maybe at the
national and international level, just to make sure we don't do something very
foolish".
Yet, according to Ray Kurzwell,
Google's director of engineering, by 2045 artificial intelligence will be here,
and 'mind uploads' will herald immortality in a world of super-human machines. He
should know because Google is showing no signs of slowing in its rapid acquisition
of companies including those involved at the sharp end of AI. Wikipedia states that Google has bought
'on average more than one company per week since 2010', 178 since February
2001. In the two years up to February of last year, according to CBS News it had spent 'a staggering $17
billion US on acquisitions'. It also has a secretive lab known variously as;
Google X Lab, Google X or Google (x)
that experiments with ambitious future technologies. There are claims too that
Google is secretly working to develop robots that use artificial intelligence
to "...make a large, positive impact on society". Sources within the
Google hierarchy are alleged to have said the company is aiming to become "AI
complete" by producing machines that are as intelligent as a human brain.
The company's founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, have both expressed
positive views on AI and have publicly stated their aim for Google to be "...
artificially intelligent so that it understands exactly what information we are
seeking so that it can be interfaced directly with our brains." Larry Page
was quoted to say: "Artificial intelligence would be the ultimate version
of Google. The ultimate search engine that would understand everything on the
Web. It would understand exactly what you wanted, and it would give you the
right thing. We're nowhere near doing that now. However, we can get
incrementally closer to that, and that is basically what we work on". This
will come as quite a worrying thought for most of us even though this announcement
was not made recently by Page ... but 15-years ago!
And Google are not alone. In
February Bloomberg Business suggested
that there have been 'a dozen start ups now forming a mini-boom in AI.' The
report goes on to say 'After two decades of the field suffering from scant
research funding and little corporate attention, a rebirth is being spurred by
interest from Google, Facebook Inc, Amazon.com and others, with Alibaba GroupHolding Ltd chairman Jack Ma saying that the Chinese e-commerce company will invest
significantly in the area'.
Research into artificial
intelligence dates back to the 1960s particularly involving its use in military
equipment and ordnance as well as in security systems. If you think the
theories of leading scientists on the dangers of AI are still 'pie n the sky'
then consider some of the innovations that have already been introduced. These
include computers that can beat human beings at chess, driverless cars, eye
glasses that provide a head-up display and Samsung televisions within our homes
that capture our voice commands and transmit conversations to third parties.
Dr Stuart Armstrong of Oxford's
Institute for the Future of Humanity has said that "Predicting artificial
intelligence is hard" but warns "...they might be extremely alien.
They might have tastes completely incomprehensible to us". This really is
a frightening scenario because it implies that AI programmed machines might
turn against us! A similar opinion has been shared by Professor Stephen Hawking
who said AI could spell the "...end of the human race" whilst
Microsoft founder Bill Gates confirmed that he is "...in the camp that is
concerned about super intelligence". He added: "First, the machines
will do a lot of jobs for us and not be super intelligent. That should be
positive if we manage it well. A few decade after that though the intelligence
is strong enough to be a concern. I agree with Elon Musk on this and don't
understand why people are not concerned". Stephen Hawking described the
threat from artificial intelligence by commenting "...it would take off on its own, and
re-design itself at an ever increasing rate ... humans, who are limited by slow
biological evolution, couldn't compete, and would be superseded".
But not everyone agrees. The
British creator of Cleverbot, Rollo Carpenter has said "I believe we will
remain in charge of the technology for a decently long time and the potential
of it to solve many of the world problems will be realised". Cleverbot
software has been developed to learn from its past conversations and during the
Turing test*, it deceived people into thinking they were having a conversation
with another human being instead of a machine. Carpenter believes we are still
a long way from developing algorithms that are needed to create full artificial
intelligence but he does agree that it will be with us during the next few
decades. If it is not going to destroy human lives the world's authorities must
find a way of controlling it to maintain a balance, yet the worrying factor
will always be of the devastation the science of AI could cause were the
technology to fall into the hands of a rogue state or terrorist organisation.
* The Turing test is a means of testing a machine's ability to exhibit
intelligent behaviour equivalent to or indistinguishable from that of a human.
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